Energy At Risk

ACME Solar
EAR Report

Solar Performance & Anomaly Analysis

ACME Solar Installation
28 January 2026
01 Nov 2025 – 28 Jan 2026
2,310 kW (2.31 MW)
01

Executive Summary

Performance Ratio
74.1%
Below Target
Target: 80%
Daytime Availability
96.2%
Below Target
Target: 97%
Capacity Utilisation
67.8%
Monitored
7 Inverters
Energy Shortfall
32.2%
291,279 kWh
vs expected production
Finding: Performance Ratio Below Target

System PR of 74.1% is 5.9 percentage points below the contractual target of 80%. Four of seven inverters are underperforming.

Finding: Availability Below Target

Daytime availability of 96.2% falls short of the 97% O&M contract target. Total fault hours recorded: 77.6 hrs (all classified as "Shutdown: on fault").

02

Performance Ratio Analysis

Reference Yield
700,074 kWh
Based on measured irradiance
Actual Yield
518,487 kWh
Recorded production
PR Gap vs Target
–5.9 pp
74.1% actual vs 80% target
Inverter ID Performance Ratio vs Target (80%) Status
000054495190 54.9%
Below Target
000054495192 68.2%
Below Target
000054495191 70.3%
Below Target
000054495193 76.0%
Below Target
000054495194 82.4%
OK
000054495196 82.9%
OK
000054495195 83.7%
OK
03

Availability Analysis

24/7 System Availability
92.7%
O&M Target: 97%
Daytime Availability
96.2%
O&M Target: 97%
Energy-Weighted Availability
97.7%
O&M Target: 97% ✓
Total Fault Hours
77.6 hrs
931 fault events — all "Shutdown: on fault"
Inverter ID Availability Downtime Status
00005449519093.9%39.5 hrsBelow Target
00005449519194.9%32.8 hrsBelow Target
00005449519296.2%24.7 hrsBelow Target
00005449519496.3%24.2 hrsBelow Target
00005449519596.8%20.6 hrsBelow Target
00005449519397.4%16.8 hrsOK
00005449519697.7%15.2 hrsOK
04

Physics-Based Performance Analysis

Production Shortfall
291,279 kWh
32.2% below physics-based expected output
Actual: 614,352 kWh Expected: 905,631 kWh
Expected Production
905,631 kWh
Rated capacity × irradiance × 85% efficiency
Actual Production
614,352 kWh
Recorded over analysis period
Peak Gap (Midday)
36.1%
Physics expected 2,194 kW; actual 1,402 kW
05

Anomaly Detection Analysis

931
Critical State Events
11,809
Capacity Underperformance
1,798
Warning State Events
104
Zero Production Events
Inverter ID Total Anomalies Anomaly Load
INV-...54495190 ~2,400
INV-...54495192 ~2,200
INV-...54495191 ~2,100
INV-...54495194 ~2,050
INV-...54495195 ~2,000
INV-...54495193 ~1,900
INV-...54495196 ~1,850
06

Financial Impact & Recovery Potential

Financial Loss (Period)
R 728,197
Based on 291,279 kWh shortfall
Projected Annual Loss
R 2,986,427
If performance remains uncorrected
Recovery Scenarios
50% System Fix — 145,639 kWh recovered R 364,099 / period  ·  R 1,493,214 / year
75% System Fix — 218,459 kWh recovered R 546,148 / period  ·  R 2,239,820 / year
Full Restoration — 276,715 kWh recovered R 691,787 / period  ·  R 2,837,106 / year
07

Recommendations

Immediate Actions — Within 7 Days
  • 1Deploy technician for physical site inspection of all inverters
  • 2Check AC/DC connections, cable integrity, and junction boxes
  • 3Verify inverter display readings match monitoring data
  • 4Inspect for physical damage, water ingress, or pest intrusion
  • 5Investigate root cause of 5.9 pp PR gap vs contractual target
Short-Term Actions — Within 30 Days
  • 1Commission independent performance audit
  • 2Review inverter firmware versions and update if needed
  • 3Check string-level performance for partial shading or module failures
  • 4Verify monitoring system accuracy with on-site measurements
Long-Term Recommendations
  • 1Install on-site pyranometer for accurate irradiance measurement
  • 2Implement automated PR alerts below 70% threshold
  • 3Establish quarterly preventive maintenance schedule
  • 4Review equipment warranties for underperforming inverter units
08

Methodology

Performance Ratio (IEC 61724)

PR = Actual Energy / Reference Yield

Reference Yield = Σ (Rated Capacity × Irradiance / 1000 W/m²) per interval. A PR of 80% means the system produces 80% of its theoretical potential given available irradiance. Contractual targets typically range 75–85%.

Availability Calculation

Technical Availability = Time in operational states / Total time. Energy-weighted availability weights each interval by expected production potential.

Operational: 512, 513, 514
Fault: 768–774, 45056

Physics-Based Expected Production

Expected = Capacity × (Irradiance / 1000) × 0.85

System efficiency set at 85% per IEC standard. This is the gold standard for solar performance assessment, removing weather variability from the analysis.

Data Sources

Production data from Huawei FusionSolar inverter telemetry at 5-minute intervals. Weather data via API (historical hourly irradiance).

Site location: Durban, South Africa (–29.86, 31.02)

Asoba ACME Solar EAR Report  ·  Generated 28 January 2026  ·  Confidential Powered by Ona Intelligence Layer